A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
